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Outlook

The Silver Standard

It is sometimes forgotten that the defeat of the Kuomintang (KMT) Nationalist Government of China, under Chiang Kai-shek in 1949, by the Communists under Mao, was due as much to the hyperinflation and corruption of KMT officials, as to the military success of the Maoists. 

RECOVERY AND REFLATION

As the Chinese New Year approaches on February 12th, we are trying to discern the trends in the year to come.  President Biden has set out important new policies in his first 2 weeks, including a US$1.9 trillion reflation package, and a continued tough line

THE GREAT DEMOGRAPHIC REVERSAL* AND PREDICTIONS FOR 2021

“The rise of China and demography created a ‘sweet spot’ that has dictated the path of inflation, interest rates, and inequality over the last three decades.  But the future will be nothing like the past – and we are at a point of inflexion.  As the sweet

“Hedge Biden with Chinese Tech”

As US Election Day approaches, investors are anxious about increased capital gains tax, more regulations, and a weaker dollar. Looking round the world today, it is clear that economic growth is strongest in China, and its neighbors, South Korea and Taiwan. We have 72% of

A New Map of Global Energy*

Just before Covid 19 hit the USA in February 2020, US oil production hit an all-time high of 13 million barrels a day, more than Saudi Arabia or Russia, and triple the level of 2008.  This single statistic illustrates how global geopolitics has been upended

The Gold Renminbi

When we wrote last month about the decline in the US dollar, the obvious question was: What is the alternative: Euro, Yen, Swiss Franc, Pound? As China is now the second largest economy, and the No. 1 global trading power, it is worth considering if

The US Dollar Weakens

At the beginning of the virus pandemic, in March, we commented on “The Virtual World” in terms of on-line work, on-line study, even on-line dating. The last 5 months of the virus lockdown have (like a war) accelerated both economic and social trends. This is

Will Inflation Return? And, The Second Wave

At present, in the midst of the Covid Pandemic, nobody expects rising prices despite the enormous stimulus programs and Central Bank money printing in the US, Europe, Japan, and China.  Yet we see pent-up demand, after the 3-month lockdown in retail sales, in auto sales

“Divergent Realities and the Hong Kong Situation”

There are two topics this month.  One is the divergent directions of the US and world economy and of the US and global stock markets, and the second is the situation of Hong Kong.  Last week, the Chinese National People’s Congress passed a new security

“Life After Covid 19”

Finally, Western economies are beginning to reopen and by mid/end May, we expect to be (almost) back to normal. It is not yet clear what the new “normal” will be. We can, however, begin to draw some tentative conclusions as to how life will be

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